Indicador Consumer Price Index CPI

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Indicador Consumer Price Index CPI

Definición general

El indicador “Consumer Price Index-CPI” (Índice de Precios al Consumor-IPC) consiste en una medida que estima el precio medio del consumo de bienes y servicios. El IPC mide la variación de los precios para un conjunto de bienes y servicios del mercado desde un periodo determinado hasta el siguiente periodo, dentro de una misma área, ya sea esta una ciudad, región o país. Se trata de un dato mensual, que siempre hace referencia al mes previo en el que el “Bureau of Labor Statistics” (la Oficina de Estadísticas Laborales) emite el informe.

La Oficina de Estadísticas Laborales de los EEUU mide dos tipos de estadísticas del IPC: IPC de los asalariados urbanos y personal administrativo (CPI-W) y IPC de todos los consumidores urbanos (C-CPI-U). De los dos tipos de IPC, se considera que el segundo es el más representativo de la población en general, ya que representa el 87% de la población.

Relevancia del índice

EL cambio porcentual en los precios del IPC es utilizado como una medida de la inflación. El IPC puede ser usado para indexar (ajuste por el efecto de la inflación) el valor real de salarios y pensiones, de manera que se ajusten al coste de la vida. En la mayoría de países, el IPC es, junto con el Censo de la Población y el dato del Producto Interior Bruto, uno de los datos económicos nacionales más seguidos de cerca por los mercados y agentes económicos.

Efectos del indicador en el mercado

El Índice de Precios al Consumo es uno de los datos estadísticos más tenidos en cuenta para identificar periodos de inflación o deflación. Esto se debe a que grandes incrementos del índice durante un corto periodo de tiempo por lo general señalan una etapa de inflación, y grandes caídas del índice durante un corto periodo de tiempo suele indicar una etapa de deflación.

Cuando el índice está creciendo, los inversores pueden temer una inflación descontrolada que haga que se suban los tipos de interés en el país, por lo que los mercados de valores descontarían este posible escenario desfavorable con caídas en los precios de las acciones en los mercados bursátiles. Esto es debido a que las subidas de los tipos de interés acaba repercutiendo en la demanda de los consumidores, reduciendo el consumo cuando se encarece el precio de la financiación al consumo. Asimismo, el aumento de los tipos de interés incide además en el encarecimiento de la financiación de las empresas, reduciendo así sus beneficios.

Cuando el IPC está creciendo y se denota un escenario de inflación, el resultado previsible es una depreciación del precio de los bonos existentes en el mercado y un incremento de la rentabilidad de los nuevos bonos emitidos, ya que los tipos de interés irán en aumento conforme la inflación se manifieste con más fuerza.

Por lo tanto, se puede concluir que el aumento del IPC puede suponer tanto una caída de los mercados de acciones y como de los mercados de bonos, ya que los inversores que operan en ambos mercados temen sus probables consecuencias vía incremento de los tipos de interés.

Por la repercusión de la inflación en los tipos de interés, que afecta a las tasas de rendimiento de la deuda pública y privada nacional, la evolucion del precio de la divisa del país se moverá en gran medida por los datos del IPC. Cabe suponer que un aumento previsible de los tipos de interés, tienda a repercutir en un fortalecimiento de la moneda nacional, ya que habrá más inversores atraídos por las altas tasas de interés de la deuda del país. Ahora bien, el precio de la divisa también tiene en cuenta la fortaleza y solvencia de la economía nacional. Por tal motivo, tomar como único dato el IPC para predecir la evolución de la moneda nacional puede ser claramente un grave error

Artículo escrito por: Manuel Mata.

Glossary:Consumer price index (CPI)

The consumer price index, abbreviated as CPI, measures the change over time in the prices of consumer goods and services acquired, used or paid for by households. It is an important measure of inflation in the European Union (EU).

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CPIs aim to cover the whole set of goods and services consumed within the territory of a country by the population. To do this, a representative set is selected; the so-called “consumer basket”. Consumer goods and services include, for example, food and beverages, products for personal hygiene, newspapers and periodicals, expenditure on housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, health, transport, communications, education, restaurants and hotels.

CPIs may be used for a wide variety of purposes, including:

  • as a guide for monetary policy;
  • for the indexation of commercial contracts, wages, social protection benefits or financial instruments;
  • as a tool for deflating the national accounts or calculating changes in national consumption or living standards.

Eurostat compiles harmonised indices of consumer prices (HICPs) to allow international comparisons of consumer price inflation. HICPs are used by the European Central Bank to monitor inflation in the euro area and to assess inflation convergence, as required under Article 121 of the Treaty of Amsterdam.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

What is Consumer Price Index (CPI)?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living. The CPI is one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation or deflation.

The Consumer Price Index

Understanding Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The CPI measures the average change in prices over time that consumers pay for a basket of goods and services, commonly known as inflation. Essentially it attempts to quantify the aggregate price level in an economy and thus measure the purchasing power of a country’s unit of currency. The weighted average of the prices of goods and services that approximates an individual’s consumption patterns is used to calculate CPI. A trimmed mean may be used as part of this.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the CPI on a monthly basis and has calculated it as far back as 1913. It is based upon the index average for the period from 1982 through 1984 (inclusive) which was set to 100. So a CPI reading of 100 means that inflation is back to the level that it was in 1984 while readings of 175 and 225 would indicate a rise in the inflation level of 75% and 125% respectively. The quoted inflation rate is actually the change in the index from the prior period, whether it is monthly, quarterly or yearly.

While it does measure the variation in price for retail goods and other items paid by consumers, it does not include things like savings and investments, and can often exclude spending by foreign visitors.

Key Takeaways

  • The Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices over time that consumers pay for a basket of goods and services.
  • CPI is the most widely used measure of inflation and, by proxy, of the effectiveness of the government’s economic policy.
  • The CPI statistics cover professionals, self-employed, poor, unemployed and retired people in the country but excludes non-metro or rural populations, farm families, armed forces, people serving in prison and those in mental hospitals.
  • CPI-W measures the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers while the CPI-U is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers.

How is CPI Used?

CPI is an economic indicator. It is the most widely used measure of inflation and, by proxy, of the effectiveness of the government’s economic policy. The CPI gives the government, businesses, and citizens an idea about prices changes in the economy, and can act as a guide in order to make informed decisions about the economy.

The CPI and the components that make it up can also be used as a deflator for other economic indicators, including retail sales, hourly/weekly earnings. Additionally, it can be used to value a consumer’s dollar to find its purchasing power. Generally, the dollar’s purchasing power declines when the aggregate price level increases and vice versa.

The index can also be used to adjust people’s eligibility levels for certain types of government assistance including Social Security and it automatically provides the cost-of-living wage adjustments to domestic workers. According to the BLS, the cost-of-living adjustments of more than 50 million people on Social Security, as well as military and Federal Civil Services retirees are linked to the CPI.

Who and What Are Covered?

The CPI statistics cover professionals, self-employed, poor, unemployed and retired people in the country. People not included in the report are non-metro or rural populations, farm families, armed forces, people serving in prison and those in mental hospitals.

The CPI represents the cost of a basket of goods and services across the country on a monthly basis. Those goods and services are broken into eight major groups:

The BLS includes sales and excise taxes in the CPI — or those that are directly associated with the price of consumer goods and services — but excludes others that aren’t linked such as income and Social Security taxes. It also excludes investments (stocks, bonds, etc.), life insurance, real estate and other items unrelated to consumers’ day-to-day consumption.

Calculating CPI

The BLS records about 80,000 items each month by calling or visiting retail stores, service establishments (such as cable providers, airlines, car and truck rental agencies), rental units and doctors’ offices across the country in order to get the best outlook for the CPI.

The formula used to calculate the Consumer Price Index for a single item is as follows:

The base year is determined by the BLS. CPI data for the years 2020 and 2020 were based on surveys collected in 2020 and 2020.

Types of CPI

Two types of CPIs are reported each time.

  1. The CPI-W measures the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. Between 1913 and 1977, the BLS focused on measuring this type of CPI. It was based on households whose incomes comprised of more than one-half from clerical or wage occupations, and in which at least one of the earners were employed for at least 37 weeks during the previous 12-month cycle. The CPI-W primarily reflects changes in the costs of benefits paid to those on Social Security. This measurement of CPI represents at least 28 percent of the country’s population.
  2. The CPI-U is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers. It accounts for 88 percent of the U.S. population and is the better representation of the general public. The BLS made improvements to CPI in 1978 and introduced a broader target population. This type of CPI is based on the spending of almost all the population that resides in urban or metropolitan areas and includes professionals, self-employed workers, those living below the poverty line, unemployed, and retired people. It also includes urban wage earners and clerical workers.

Despite introducing the CPI-U in 1978, the BLS continued to measure the traditional measure of the CPI-W. But since 1985, the main difference between the two indexes has been the expenditure weights assigned to item categories and geographic areas.

CPI Regional Data

The Bureau of Labor Statistics also breaks down the CPI based on regions. Each month, the report is broken out into the four major Census regions:

  1. Northeast
  2. Midwest
  3. South
  4. West.

Three major metro areas are also broken out each month. The regions are

  1. Chicago-Gary-Kenosha
  2. Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County
  3. New York-Northern NJ-Long Island.

Along with the regional information provided each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also publishes reports for 11 additional metro areas every other month and an additional 13 metro areas semi-annually. These reports cover areas with large populations and represent a particular regional subset.

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